In the Throes of a Revolution
Dr Ramakant Dwivedi
Strategic Analyst
E-mail: ramnisha2002@hotmail.com
Recent political developments in Kyrgyzstan have captured the headlines of the world media. Many argue that in Kyrgyzstan some sort of the colored revolution have taken place, which resemble the "rose revolution" in Georgia and "orange revolution" in Ukraine. Talking about Kyrgyzstan case one should draw the analogies carefully, however. First, both parliamentary and presidential elections are coming up in almost all CIS countries, including the Central Asian Republics. This means that one can rightly expect struggle for power on the eve of these elections. Second, Kyrgyzstan's political elites, including opposition, (Social Democratic Parties, the Party of Communists, the Communist Party, the Republican Party, Asaba, the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Kairan El, New Kyrgyzstan, Erkin Kyrgyzstan, and Erkindik and others), have acquired considerable experience of political competition since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. Third, Akayev government had failed to address the deep rooted socio-economic problems and fell into serious economic and political default. Fourth, Akayev's government couldn't work out an adequate regional policy (regional not only in terms of the North-South division with in Kyrgyzstan but primarily with respect to other Central Asian Republics). Fifth, there are sufficient reasons to believe that financial aid by the aid agencies based in western countries to hundreds of NGOs in Kyrgyzstan was directed towards speeding up democratic change in Kyrgyzstan
Thousand of people gathered on the Ala-Too Square to demand the resignation of Askar Akaev on March 24. It did not take demonstrators longtime to enter the White House, throwing portraits of Akaev out of the windows and waving the flag of Kyrgyzstan. However they could not find the Kyrgyz President Akaev there who had left 30 minutes before protestors entered his office. Other high ranking government officials also left through another door.
After some time then the leader of the People's Movement of Kyrgyzstan and now acting president of Kyrgyzstan, Kurmanbek Bakiev, announced that the government is in the hands of the people. The People's Movement of Kyrgyzstan was formed on 22 September 2004 from nine parties and movements -- the Party of Communists, the Communist Party, the Republican Party, Asaba, the Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Kairan El, New Kyrgyzstan, Erkin Kyrgyzstan, and Erkindik. Former Prime Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev was elected the movement's chairman at the bloc's 5 November founding congress. Bakiev's deputies are Asaba leader Azimbek Beknazarov, Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan leader Nikolai Baiko, and former Education Minister Ishengul Boljurova. Prior to 22 September, it was the "For People Power" election bloc, which was formed on 14 January 2004 and made up of the Asaba, Erk, Democratic Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Erkindik, Kairan El, and Republican parties. The "For Fair Elections" election bloc was formed on 20 May 2004 and combines the Ar-Namys, El, Ata-Meken, and Social Democratic parties. Former Security Council Secretary Misir Ashyrkulov is the bloc's leader.In the meantime another opposition leader Felix Kulov, who had been in jail since 2000, was freed. Kulov is the leader of the “Ar-Namys” opposition party.
Kyrgyzstan an “Island of Democracy” in the ocean of ‘authoritarian’ Central Asia was looked as pioneer of democracy and civil liberty in the region. Akayev government initiatives aimed at promoting democracy attracted substantial foreign aid to Kyrgyzstan. However, this did not last long and since the mid 1990s, Akaev began turning increasingly autocratic. Feliks Kulov and Topchubek Turgunaliev ended up in jail and criminal charges were slammed on Daniar Usenov, barring him from standing for election. Akayev government also started influencing the judicial and legislative branches to control his political opponents.Nepotism and corruption given priority over healthy completion and transparent and responsible governance. Akayev family members took undue advantages to promote and further their business interests. Be it his son, son-in-law or wife, all of them was calling shots in government. Akayev’s wife Mairam’s clans (Sari-Bagish, Saru and Kutchu) and regions (Kemin and Talas) were over represented in the government while the most populous Southern region was underrepresented.
I think Akayev government’s conduct in the recently held parliamentary elections which were held in February and March this year proved the last nail in the coffin of Akayev government. Then main political opposition leaders and now in the government Kurmanbek Bakiev and Roza Otunbaeva were deprive of their legitimate political rights enshrined in the Kyrgyz Constitution. However Akayev son and daughter were elected to the Jogorku Kenesh (Parliament). These measure , perhaps, seemed to be part of the well thought out strategy of Akayev government’s to ensure one more term for Akayev in the White House. Meanwhile, corruption, rural poverty, unemployment and Akaev’s alienation from ordinary people severely diminished his popularity. The combined impact of all these factors was what the world saw on March 24 2005.
Kyrgys people are yet to realise the political benefits of the recent changes, however the full cost of the destruction of state property remains to be estimated. According to Member of Parliament Timir Sariev, ‘the budget lost one million dollars, while the Ministry of Finance estimates losses of half again as much. Still, the main costs are in the private sector. Major stores such as “Beta,” “Dordoi Plaza,” “Silk Way,” “Narodnyi” and many others were looted completely.’
Kyrgyz leaders have been repeatedly underlining the point that they stand for democracy. The new change in Bishkek does represent a new hope for the people of Kyrgyzstan. However the issues such as corruption, rural poverty and unemployment should be the priority for the new government. The very “Revolution” which took place on March 24 2005 is also a lesson for the new government to create a system of governance based on checks and balances. The four pillars of democracy that is Legislative, Executive, Judiciary and Press need to deliver their due. As far as the form of government is concerned I think Kyrgyz people would be able to address this issue in due course of time. Meanwhile Akayev government has left a big mess to be cleared by the new government.
(Published in the ASIAN AFFAIRS, MAY 2005. The views expressed are personal.)
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