ICAF/Central Asia Report /02/2005
An Analysis of the May 13 in Andijon City, Uzbekistan
Background
At least nine people are reported to have been killed and 30 others wounded when Uzbek security forces opened fire on a group of armed men in Andijon City today. Andijon City is located in the eastern part of Uzbekistan and is part of the Ferghana Valley. The trouble started soon after relatives and friends of the 23 persons, who are undergoing trial on the charges of religious extremism, looted the military unit in Andijon City on Friday May 13, 2005 around midnight according to news reports.
The Akromilars (followers of Akram Yuldoshev), thereafter, attacked a high-security prison and freed prisoners. They made an attempt to seize the buildings of the regional National Security Service and the local administration which was foiled by Uzbek security forces. The casualties were reported to be 9 deaths and 34 wounded. There are conflicting reports about the venue of the clashes; and one suggests that these were in the central square of Andijon city.
In 1992, Akram Yuldoshev, a 29-year-old mathematics teacher from Andijon, wrote a theological pamphlet "Yimonga Yul" (Path to faith). In the pamphlet he argues for the superiority of Islamic philosophy. A circle of sympathisers gathered around him and started following Islamic guidelines in their own lives. Akromilars have been fighting to establish a Muslim caliphate in Central Asia and are opposed to the liberal traditions of Sufism which has been the hallmark of Central Asian civilisations. Their main demands include: a return to the basic principles and commandments of Islam; purification of Islam of all `later’ heresies and ‘distractions; a political system based on Hakimiya and the caliphate; a legal system within the Shari’a framework and its over-riding the legislature and the executive. The Akromilar ideology appears to be gaining some ground in Uzbekistan.
The Uzbek Interior Minister, Zakir Almatov, began negotiations on Friday May 13 2005 with the protesters who said they were holding a number of policemen as hostages. Reports suggest that the detained 23 men were released subsequently. But the protesters scaled up their demands and said that the government should free all of those jailed on suspicion of being Akramiya followers. Speaking to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s (RFE/RL) Uzbek Service from the occupied regional administration building occupied by the protesters, one of them (Sharipjon Shakirov) said: "We have only one demand. They should release those persons who were imprisoned under slander, including [Akramiya founder] Akram Yuldoshev," He said the government was refusing their demand.
Analysis
Andijon is next door to Kyrgyzstan’s Osh and Jalalabad provinces where the successful March 2005 demonstrations against the Kyrgyz president, Asker Akayev, culminated in his flight to Moscow. The movement was christened as the “Tulip Revolution”. Some analysts have suggested that the Tulip Revolution has cast its shadow, now, over the Uzbek part of the Ferghana Valley. This appears to be an extrapolative leap from an inadequate data base. However, the case for a continuous watch and study of developments is valid because Uzbekistan is a key country in the region and traumatic changes would have major geo-political implications for the Central Asia and its neighbouring regions.
It is worth noting that Uzbekistan’s neighbours (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan) have placed their security and border forces on a heightened alert. But Uzbekistan has declared today it had no intention of declaring an emergency.
Some Central Asian watchers hold the view that that political deprivation, deteriorating economic conditions and corruption have enabled religious extremism to germinate. The Russian Foreign Ministry said the government condemns the actions of extremists and highlighted the Uzbek-Russia “strategic partnership”. Clearly, Moscow is unlikely to be a silent spectator.
ICAF Research Team
Posted on the web on Saturday, May 14 2005